Observation by Michael Opheim:
About 8 air miles to the east-northeast of Seldovia, up the head of Jakolof Bay is the mouth of Jakolof/Kingfisher Creek. With low and no water flow going down the streams because of no snow pack and no amounts of rain, the stream system is drying out. Two thousand or more salmon and Dolly Varden have died in the struggle to get up stream and spawn. These salmon have become an even more important resource with no coho salmon being stocked in Seldovia Lake, located to the southeast, about 7.5 air miles. With an aging population that can more easily access this site and its resources, people rely on this creek to help fill the drying racks, jars, freezers, or smokehouses.
Glenn Hollowell, Biologist for Alaska Department of Fish and Game Consult, writes:
We have had a record return of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in lower Cook Inlet in 2015. Most of our major streams either are in the upper end of their escapement goals or are higher. Many of the smaller systems also have significantly more fish than they normally do. This combined with low snowfall last winter, and modest amounts of rain this summer have made it difficult (or impossible) for some of the smaller returns to reach spawning areas that might be accessible in years of adequate rainfall or greater snow pack. During years of low water flow, pink salmon have the ability to spawn in gravel in the inter-tidal areas. Additionally, wild pink salmon are known to stray to neighboring streams. This may allow fish to return to Jakolof Creek from other returns and repopulate it if this year's return does not put any eggs into Jakolof Creek itself. Lastly, pink salmon within a diverse population have different run timings. Some fish will migrate into the streams earlier in the season to spawn, and others will migrate later. When streams dry up as the result of minimal snow pack and/or no rain, earlier-timed pink salmon could have gotten their eggs into the gravel before water flow stopped, (where they would remain moist and survive due to groundwater), and later-timed pink salmon could get their eggs deposited in gravel after September rains have restored water flow. On Tuesday, we surveyed the portion of the Seldovia River that we used as an escapement index for the fourth time this year. We counted 24,750 live and 23,500 dead pink salmon. Previous pink salmon counts for this system were,
- 7/20 9,500 live, 1 dead,
- 8/4 37,014 live, 1,464 dead,
- 8/21 41,030 live, 12,674 dead, and
- 9/8 24,750 live, 23,500 dead
The sustainable escapement goal for this species and river is 19,050 - 38,950 pink salmon. An additional result of minimal rainfall is that spent carcasses have not been washed away. There are considerable numbers of carcasses lying about in tidal sloughs at the back of Seldovia Bay and along the banks of the Seldovia River. I've uploaded a video to YouTube that I took on the survey that shows current conditions at the Seldovia River. This is similar to conditions that we have observed on our surveys of streams from Nuka Island around and up into Kachemak Bay, excluding the western side of Cook Inlet. Thank you for including me in this discussion.
Additional comments by Michael Opheim:
I have heard of people's concerns (low water) with 4th of July Creek. Earlier in August, fish were getting up the fish creek, but I don't know about after that. My cousin in Kodiak was taking pics of pinks struggling in inches of water. My other cousin from Kodiak went out after silvers but couldn't catch any because of all the pinks still around the points and bays. No water to draw them into the streams I'm guessing. I haven't been up to Seldovia River at all this year. I made it to just under the old Indian village and turned around with a skiff one day a few weeks ago. Lots of pinks up there too at the mouth of the river then.
This run of salmon has been there long before any hatchery in Tutka Bay lagoon. I have talked to Elders about that run of silvers in particular and how it's always been a small run and how it's almost been fished out a couple times. The pinks and dogs have always used that stream (Jakolof). I fished for pinks and Dolly's Varden there when I was a kid. If someone was going to make a case for hatchery fish, then you might look at that small run of reds. Steve Hughes who has watched that run has seen as few as 2 and as many as 126 reds in the lake in his 30+ years there. I am not sure that logging or mining has anything to do with Jakolof Creek going subterranean. It has done that for as long as I have lived here and elders have mentioned it going dry in their time as well. Even with Jakolof Creek going dry, after spring melt off and seasonal rains the water from the two lakes has usually been enough to keep water flowing to the mouth of the river for fish to get up in the system and spawn.
**Comment by LEO Network Editors: A review of harvest summary data from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game indicates that over 50% of the total subsistence diet of Seldovia residents is fish, mostly salmon. In 2014 Seldovia residents harvested over 13,000 lbs. of salmon. Other important fish species include Dolly Varden, rock fish and halibut. Other important non-fish resources include a variety of wild plants and berries, large land mammals such as moose and sheep, and marine invertebrates such as clams and mussels. With two of the important salmon streams experiencing die-offs (Seldovia Creek and Jakolof), and dry conditions also effecting abundance and / or safety of other food resources (such as clams and berries), the combined effect may raise food security challenges for some families, now or in the months ahead. Looking at the weather in August 2015, the average temperature in August 2015 was 54.9 degrees Fahrenheit, as reported by Weather Underground. Historically the average August temperature has been 51.8 degrees. The climate model through 2099 (SNAP) projects gradually increasing temperatures (see attached figure). Average temperatures for August 2015 were 3.1 degrees above historic temperatures. Precipitation for the month (0.04") were 2.91" below the historical average of 2.95 inches. Mike Brubaker
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Coho salmon
Observations From Members