Alaska's total commercial salmon harvest this year was ultra-low in both quantity and value

Alaska's 2024 commercial salmon harvest was among the lowest since records began and offered the lowest inflation-adjusted value to harvesters since 1975.

Comment from Gemini:

The attached observations provide important context for the historically low salmon harvest in Alaska during 2024. Several recurring themes emerge, pointing to a confluence of factors contributing to this decline. A key theme is the unusually small size of salmon observed in recent years. The 2024 Bristol Bay sockeye run, while exceeding expectations in terms of numbers, saw the smallest average fish size on record (Marquee Alaska sockeye run was bigger than expected, but the individual fish were small). This trend of smaller fish has been noted as early as 2018 in Ouzinkie (Small red salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) return and fish size) and 2023 in Newhalen (Smaller salmon and slower returns), with concerns raised about the impact of warming ocean temperatures on fish growth. A 2020 study published in Nature Communications further supports this observation, showing a multi-decade decline in the size of nearly all Alaskan salmon species, attributed to warming waters and increased ocean competition (Study shows Alaska salmon are shrinking). Smaller fish not only reduce the overall biomass of the harvest but can also negatively affect escapement, as seen in Bristol Bay where smaller fish slipped through nets. Another recurring concern is the impact of warming waters on salmon survival and returns. The disastrously low Copper River salmon runs in 2018, attributed to unusually warm ocean temperatures (Warmer waters cut Alaska's prized salmon harvest, Dismal Copper River salmon run prompts 'unprecedented' shutdown of dipnetting at Chitina), foreshadowed the challenges faced in 2024. The Blob," a mass of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska from 2014-2016, was cited as a contributing factor to the 2018 Copper River collapse and likely had lasting consequences for subsequent salmon generations. The observation regarding changes in fish size and parasite load in Kasilof sockeye in 2021 (Changes in fish size and parasite load of Kasilof sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)) further highlights the complex interplay between environmental conditions and fish health. While the observation doesn’t definitively link parasites to warming waters, it suggests that warming could exacerbate other stressors impacting salmon.Finally, the related observations highlight the socio-economic consequences of low salmon harvests. The 2018 sockeye collapse in Chignik (No fish and no hope): Poor sockeye salmon run takes a toll on Chignik) demonstrates the devastating impact on communities reliant on salmon for their livelihoods. This underscores that the low 2024 harvest is not merely a biological issue but a significant economic and social challenge for Alaska.While the 2024 salmon harvest is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of Alaska's salmon populations to environmental change, it's essential to view this year's numbers within the context of long-term trends and cyclical fluctuations. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s emphasis on the relatively high salmon abundance in recent years offers a glimmer of hope, as does the anticipated improvement in the 2025 season. However, the recurring observations of smaller fish sizes and the impacts of warming waters suggest a need for continued monitoring and proactive management strategies to ensure the long-term health and sustainability of Alaska's salmon fisheries.