LEO Network
21 November 2017

Warm & Rainy Fall Season

The article discusses the warm and rainy fall season in Lower Kalskag, Alaska, which is unusual compared to previous years. The sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea have been persistently above normal since 2013, contributing to the warm weather. The article also mentions that people have been experiencing the flu for longer than usual. The observation has been added to a project called Extreme or Unseasonable Weather, which contains a collection of observations related to unusual weather patterns affecting river and sea ice. The National Weather Service has been forwarded the observation for information on historical freeze dates.

Babara Askoak writes,

We usually had temperatures in the low 15° F range and the river would be frozen with people ice fishing. The past couple years have been warmer than normal contributing to where the river is still flowing ice and with some of the plants still green. We had more rain than the past few years. People have been having the flu longer than usual as well.

Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Consult:

Eric Holloway, HAS Forecaster writes; For Southwest Alaska, warm autumns have to start with SSTs or Sea Surface Temperatures, which have been persistently been running above normal in the Bering Sea. And SSTs in the Bering Sea have been running above normal, nearly consistently, since the summer of 2013 (see "Seasonal SST Anomaly Plot (August 20th - November 18th, 2017)" below).

I was looking at the gridded average temperature ranks and it looks like you have to go back to Nov of 2011 and 2012 to find some below average temps to an appreciable amount (see " Mean Temperature Percentile" figures below). And 2017 has been pretty warm statewide...The reddish dots indicate much above normal temperatures. This is because of the persistent development of storms coming in from the Bering Sea and pushing warm southwesterly winds across the region (see "Departure from Normal Temperature" figures below).

And lastly I took a peek at our freeze up database, and we don't have that much information at Aniak. There is more information for Bethel, but overall I would say that a normal freeze-up date is somewhere around the middle of October, which sounds like what most people who live on the river remember (see "Kuskokwim River Chart" below). Source: NOAA, National Weather Service Alaska Region, Alaska-Pacific RFC

LEO says:

This observation has been added to a project called Extreme or Unseasonable Weather. This project contains a collection of observations that range from unusually warm or cool seasons, open water in winter, extreme storms, and more. Several observations, in particular, relate to warm fall/winter seasons affecting river and sea ice. Recently, Chuathbaluk residents also reported open water on the Kuskokwim River during November. Other observations of unusual ice freeze/thaw patterns have come from Denali, Nome, Tooksook Bay, and Nulato in 2016. In 2015, similar observations were received from Nome, Anchorage, Iliamna, and from Nanwalek, Kwinhagak, Ruby, and Cordova in 2014. Information on spring river thaw can be found at the National Weather Service, River View site. This observation has been forwarded to National Weather Service members for information on historical freeze dates.

Lower Kalskag, Alaska, United States


Departure from Normal Temperature November, 2017
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Departure from Normal Temperature October, 2017
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Kuskokwim River Chart
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Mean Temperature Percentile 2011
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Mean Temperature Percentile 2012
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Seasonal SST Anomaly Plot (August 20th - November 18th, 2017)
Eric Holloway, NOAA
Weather
Surface Waters / Wetlands
Ice / Snow Change
Air
Plants / Kelp
Human Health
Transportation
Seasonal Timing
Rain on Snow