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The High Latitude Marine Heat Wave of 2016 and its Impacts on Alaska

15 Dec 2017

The warmth of the Bering Sea in 2016 was unprecedented in the historical record, and the warmth of the GOA nearly so. The FAR values Fig. 8.2. Normalized anomalies of (a) heat content and (b) SSTs for the present (black) and preindustrial (blue) climate of the GOA (circle and plus) and Bering Sea (triangle and x) regions from the five model ensembles. Anomalies exceeding 2016 value are in red (shapes as indicated), and the ensemble/region means are shown by the solid lines. Mean probability distributions (%) of (c) heat content and (d) SSTs from the model ensembles; solid (open) circles indicate present (preindustrial) climate for the GOA (blue) and Bering Sea (red). Spread of individual models is shown by the smaller, corresponding open/closed circles. Dashed vertical lines show the 2016 anomalies: GOA (blue), Bering Sea (red). AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2018 | S43 based on an ensemble of five global climate models indicate that the 2016 warm ocean anomalies cannot be explained without anthropogenic climate warming, although the region’s large internal variability was also a contributing factor (Fig. 8.1 and online supplement material). A strong El Niño with a positive PDO (warm) phase, together with preconditioning of the waters during 2014/15 and the anomalous atmospheric circulation of early 2016, made for a “perfect storm” of marine heating around Alaska. Both anthropogenic forcing and internal variability were necessary for the extreme warmth of the subarctic seas. Our conclusions are consistent with and extend previous findings concerning the 2014 warm SST anomalies in the northeast Pacific (Weller et al. 2015). Additionally, the trajectory of the present climate with RCP8.5 indicates that SST and HC extreme anomalies like 2016 will become common in the coming decades. Given the many impacts of the 2016 anomaly, the future climate projected here will result in a profound shift for people, systems, and species when such warm ocean temperatures become common and not extreme in the GOA and Bering regions.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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