Cold and Snowy Spring

Observation: My environmental observation is the below average temperatures and higher than average volumes of snow that have been observed this Spring (mid March to mid April) in Calgary Alberta. My observation is based off a comparison experience with spring 2017, where there was no snow and warmer than average temperatures. This is achieved through comparing pictures (see picture 1) taken outside my house and a review of the historical weather averages (see table 1). Calgary’s weather is largely driven by weather patterns from the Pacific Ocean coming over the Rocky Mountains or coming down from the arctic. Theses competing systems tend to be the drivers for Calgary’s large fluctuations in temperatures, chinooks, which can change the daily high from -20 to +20 degrees in less than 24 hours.

Picture 1: Comparison pictures from the second week in April 2017 (top) and 2018 (bottom). The volume of snow is from high volumes over the winter as well as the snow falls during the early weeks of spring.

March 2018 April 2018 March Historical Averages (1981-2010) April Historical Averages (1981-2010) High temperature (Celsius) +10.2 +10.4 +4.4 +11.2 Low Temperature (Celsius) -23.4 -15.6 -7.5 -2.0 Precipitation (mm) 35.3 22.9 17.8 25..2

Table 1: Current and Historical Weather Averages for Calgary, Alberta (Environment Canada, 2018)

Interpretation: Causation factors of this observation could be from a La Nina system creating cooler ocean temperatures or it could be from climate change which cause drastic changes in global and local climate and weather. Meteorologists predicted this winter and spring to be dominated by a mid La Nina system, which is know to lead to cooler temperatures and more precipitation in Canadian prairies (Dr. Gillham 2017 and 2018). Therefore, was this spring an anomaly or a norm compared to historical springs.

If this observation is an anomaly or the norm it can have consequences either way for species migration, hibernation, birth and feeding cycles, water management, agriculture, budding and blooming of plants and much more. If the trend is leading towards cooler springs with more precipitation we may see higher water tables and soil moisture which is good for agriculture but if the birds and insects are not being born on schedule due to colder temperature and high precipitation then the feeding cycle will be off. However, if the trend is towards warmer temperature and less precipitation we could see drought conditions later in the season and early rise from hibernation by bears with no food source available.

Expert Consult / Dialogue with Colleague: Due to moving to Calgary just last year I reached out to friends and family that are long time community members in the Calgary area. My 3 consults are all in different generations and have different work/hobby backgrounds which leads them to each have slightly different perspectives on the temperatures and participation in Spring 2018 compared to historical Springs. Below summary table of their opinions to 5 questions that I presented them. Each of them had common opinions as well as specific concerns that they thought were important. I have used their points of interest along with scientific research of Calgary weather trends to come to a final conclusion about this chilly and snowy 2018 spring in Calgary.

Community Consult Questions Participant A Participant B Participant T

Compare Spring 2018 to Spring 2017

What is “normal” spring - Weather in Calgary is hard to define normal, weather is not unusual - -winter and spring has seen a lack of chinooks - Lingering snow fall makes the spring feel longer/slow - Snow should be all gone by now - Common to have wet snow falls but not as many as this year - Warmer temperatures where you can wear short sleeves - Crocuses would be out - march usually shows more double digit temperature - wet and heavy snow falls are extremely high

Driver of spring conditions -proximity to the mountains and latitude creates variability -ocean currents, jet stream, omega highs, arctic vortex, Montana clippers - climate change and carbon pollution cause more extremes - driver is la nina based on the scientists, not a term used 40 years ago - normal variability, years ago the spring was almost tropical - jet stream is the driver of the storms

Affect on work/life - calving is harder with cooler spring, causes stress and mortality - high snows make monitoring and working with calves harder - -warmer spring makes it easier to deal with cows but creates less moisture for crops - Reduced gardening season, reduced blossom development - Horrendous season for mosquitos but hatching later - Higher water table seen in longer standing puddles and wetlands - colder spring leads to negative feelings and reduced time to be outside

Ecosystem changes

Conclusion:

References: Environment Canada. (2018). Historical Climate Data. Retrieved from http://climate.weather.gc.ca/index_e.html

Dr. Gillham, Doug. (2017). “Classic” Canadian winter making a comeback: Details. The Weather Network. Retrieved from https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/winter-forecast-2017-2018-la-nina/89578

Dr. Gillham, Doug. (2018). Spring Forecast 2018 and exclusive sneak peek at summer. The Weather Network. Retrieved from https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/2018-canada-spring-forecast-national-next-three-months-of-weather-temperature-precipitation/96229